Investors Cheer Strong Corporate Profits

BigNumber_Image 11.18.24

Positive earnings surprises are back on track.

With more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 index reporting their earnings results, we now have a nearly complete view of corporate profits for the third quarter of 2024. The news is good: The S&P 500 companies that have beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates for the quarter— roughly 75% of the firms in the index — have done so by a healthy 7%, on average (see the chart). That’s a significant improvement from the average upside surprise of just 3.9% in the second quarter—and it’s much more in line with the overall near-term trend of around 7% to 8%. This uptick may reflect reality catching up with expectations compared to last quarter.

S&P 500 Companies: Average Earnings Surprises

Source: Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon Investments, as of 09/30/2024.

Robust consumer spending, continued moderating inflation, oh, and that 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September all contributed to an economic environment that has helped corporate profits grow more than some had anticipated.

A few major names have yet to be reported. This week, we’ll get AI-darling Nvidia’s results, along with retail bellwethers Walmart and Target, as we head into a holiday season that’s anticipating record spending levels.

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