Here’s how stocks may perform for the rest of 2024
As the fall harvest season begins, it’s a time of reaping the rewards of hard work. For investors, could it mean the potential for positive stock market gains by year-end?
The argument: Over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6% return from Labor Day through the end of December—and has been in positive territory over that period in 13 out of those 15 years (see the chart).
S&P 500 Performance, Labor Day – End of Calendar Year
Source: Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon Investments, as of September 3, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indices are unmanaged and do not have fees or expense charges, both of which would lower returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
That said, the path to those profits has often been rocky. Over the past 15 years, for example, September has been the S&P 500’s worst month on average—posting a negative monthly return in the past four years.
We can’t know with certainty how the remaining 80 or so trading days of 2024 will treat investors. But we see reasons to be optimistic that stocks will benefit from a tailwind going into the final months of the year. For example:
The Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting later this month—a move expected to help support stock prices.
- Corporate earnings continue to look solid.
- Economic growth is expected to be a healthy 2.0% in the third quarter, given data thus far.
- Inflation continues to decline toward the Fed’s target level of 2%.
Of course, there are plenty of opportunities for volatility along the way—particularly in light of the upcoming Presidential election. But as the chart above shows, stocks came out ahead from Labor Day through year-end in all of the past three election years.
The upshot: If history repeats, the fall harvest has the potential to be a good one for investors.
The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. Reference to an index does not imply that any account will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility, or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information obtained from third party sources is believed reliable but has not been vetted by the firm or its personnel.
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