A Small-Cap Surprise Party

BigNumber_Image 2.10.25

Earnings have been much better than expected thus far among the market’s small companies.

Large-company stocks have outpaced their small-cap peers since the start of 2024: 28.2% versus 10.6%, respectively. Of course, the Magnificent 7 have generated far greater returns than either of those indices.

But small-caps may now be positioned to steal some of the spotlight, with their earnings for this reporting season 13.1% higher on average than analysts expected (see the chart). That’s significantly better than small-caps’ positive earnings surprises seen in the last several quarters, and it’s the biggest surprise since the first quarter of 2023.

                                      Small-Cap Earnings: Surprisingly Better Than Expected So Far

Source: Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon Investments, as of 02/07/2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The caveat: Only around 40% of S&P-tracked small companies have reported their most recent financial results thus far—giving investors an incomplete picture of small-caps’ overall strength. As more small companies report in the coming weeks, that picture will become clearer.

By comparison, nearly 65% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings—representing the majority of the weight of that index. The average large-cap upside earnings surprise has been just 6.5%.

More small-company earnings reports are needed to confirm whether the current trend has staying power and can drive a broader market expansion, allowing them to compete with their current top-of-the-market rivals. However, investors continue to celebrate the positive surprises emerging this earnings season.

References to indices, or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for informational purposes only. Reference to an index does not imply that any account will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information obtained from third party sources is believed reliable but has not been vetted by the firm or its personnel.

This commentary is written by Horizon Investments’ asset management team. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This report does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances that may be relevant to any company, industry, or security mentioned herein. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. It is for the general information of clients of Horizon Investments, LLC (“Horizon”). This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any analysis, advice, or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Investors may realize losses on any investments. Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. All investing involves the risk of loss.
The investments recommended by Horizon Investments are not guaranteed. There can be economic times when all investments are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Clients may lose money. This commentary is based on public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The opinions expressed herein are our opinions as of the date of this document. These opinions may not be reflected in all of our strategies. We do not intend to and will not endeavor to update the information discussed in this document. No part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without Horizon’s prior written consent. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Other disclosure information is available at www.horizoninvestments.com.
Horizon Investments and the Horizon H are registered trademarks of Horizon Investments, LLC
©2025 Horizon Investments, LLC.
You are now leaving this website to go to HorizonMutualFunds.com