Earnings have been much better than expected thus far among the market’s small companies.
Large-company stocks have outpaced their small-cap peers since the start of 2024: 28.2% versus 10.6%, respectively. Of course, the Magnificent 7 have generated far greater returns than either of those indices.
But small-caps may now be positioned to steal some of the spotlight, with their earnings for this reporting season 13.1% higher on average than analysts expected (see the chart). That’s significantly better than small-caps’ positive earnings surprises seen in the last several quarters, and it’s the biggest surprise since the first quarter of 2023.
Small-Cap Earnings: Surprisingly Better Than Expected So Far
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Source: Bloomberg, calculations by Horizon Investments, as of 02/07/2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The caveat: Only around 40% of S&P-tracked small companies have reported their most recent financial results thus far—giving investors an incomplete picture of small-caps’ overall strength. As more small companies report in the coming weeks, that picture will become clearer.
By comparison, nearly 65% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings—representing the majority of the weight of that index. The average large-cap upside earnings surprise has been just 6.5%.
More small-company earnings reports are needed to confirm whether the current trend has staying power and can drive a broader market expansion, allowing them to compete with their current top-of-the-market rivals. However, investors continue to celebrate the positive surprises emerging this earnings season.